Marsden Jacob undertakes analysis for our clients using existing models which we have developed and bespoke financial and economic models designed for specific project or client requirements.

For individual utilities, we specialise in developing models which are tailored to the unique entity’s business.  These models focus on providing insights that can be used by boards, management and professional staff to support regulatory, pricing, investment and other strategic decisions.

We have also developed a suite of industry sector models that we can use to assess a wide range of issues for clients, such as impacts of changes in market settings conditions, policy arrangements and the distribution of the benefits and costs of RDE programs.

We develop these models to ensure the best advice is supported by state of the art tools and models. We aim to ensure that our advice to clients is based on the most pertinent and sophisticated modelling capability available.

Examples of models we have developed by sector include:


Water models

  • MJA-AWRCOE Water Recycling Economic Assessment Tool

Marsden Jacob and the Australian Water Recycling Centre of Excellence have developed a free Excel-based tool that allows users to undertake a cost benefit analysis to quantify a range of economic, social and environmental benefits, and costs for recycled water schemes.  It allows users to enter a wide variety of costs and benefits that are relevant to water recycling projects, including capital and operating costs, revenue from the scheme, avoided water and wastewater costs, and broader external factors (where applicable) such as carbon emissions, the wider community’s willingness to contribute to the scheme, and the impact on water restrictions and the take-up of rainwater tanks.

The tool includes two output modules – one from a whole-of-community perspective and another from the commercial perspective of the recycled water service provider. Outputs include year-to-year cash and non-cash values, and a summary of the Net Present Value results.

The model can be accessed here.

  • MJA Temporary Water Market Model

Our temporary water market model has been designed to aid water managers by incorporating temporary water trading impacts in their decision-making processes.

It uses weekly water trade data observations and other relevant market data from five inter-connected trading zones: SA Murray, Victorian Murray, Victorian Goulburn, NSW Murray and NSW Murrumbidgee. The model estimates how making temporary trades within a trading zone could impact on prices and trade volumes in that zone and the four other trading zones. The model estimates short-run and long-run price and trade volume impacts.

  • MJA Pacific Islands Water-Supply Demand Model

This is an Excel-based water supply-demand developed specifically to reflect conditions in rainfall dependent Pacific Island countries. The model is used to assess shortfalls in water supply relative to demand under different drought scenarios. The model could be described as a strategic model in that it was designed to examine short and longer term water security at a country, island or village level rather than at the level of an individual household or government or community building.  As such, it was set up to integrate water supply from a range of sources including household rainwater tanks, government and community cisterns, desalination and groundwater.

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Agriculture and resource models

  • MJA Australian Dairy Model

This is a multi-region model of the Australian dairy industry with representation of the farm, processing and retail sectors. The model is designed to estimate the impacts through the supply chain of changes in key market and institutional settings. The model was recently used to estimate the distribution of the benefits and costs of Dairy Australia’s research, development and extension programs.

  • MJA Australian Beef Model

This multi-regional model of the Australian beef industry is under development and includes representation of the farm, processing and retail sectors. The model is being designed to estimate the impacts through the supply chain of changes in key market settings. The model will be used to estimate the benefits and costs of the Meat and Livestock Australia’s product integrity program.

  • MJA Horticulture Model

This is a multi-subregional model of the horticulture industry in the Victoria and New South Wales Pest Free Area. The model includes detailed representation of biosecurity risks and treatments for Queensland Fruit Fly and flow on market impacts. The model enables specification of sub-regional biosecurity outbreak and spread scenarios and cost modelling of treatments and benefit distributions.

  • MJA Australian Lamb and Wool Model

This is a multi-regional model of the Australian lamb and wool industry at the farm gate. The model is designed to estimate the impacts of farm extension services in the industry. The model was recently used to estimate the benefits and costs of the Best Lamb Best Wool program for DEPI Victoria and the MLA.

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Energy models

  • Electricity Market Simulation Model – PROPHET

Marsden Jacob is licensed to operate all modules of the PROPHET energy market simulation model. PROPHET is an advanced electricity market simulation model used by many parties in Australia (NEM and WA WEM) that include AEMO, TNSP’s government, portfolio generators and retailers.

PROPHET is capable of simulating the physical and market operations of the NEM and WA WEM in significant detail including the impacts of competition that reflect the competitive structure of the industry.   Examples of its use are in projecting future wholesale energy prices, impact of environmental schemes such as carbon pricing and the RET, transmission congestion and economics, competitive impacts of industry consolidation, assessment of market rule changes. It has also been used to quantify the operational and economic impact of technology changes such as smart grid, high wind penetration, geothermal and nuclear power.

  • Long Term “Least Cost” – PROPHET Planning

This model provides for the long term development of electricity markets in terms of generator entry and retirement, the locations of plant entry and exit, plant type and operating regimes.   The flows on transmission lines and additional transmission requirements can also be established.

Uses of this model have included quantifying the long term impact of pricing carbon and renewable energy targets, new interconnector economics, long term economics and impacts of new technologies such as nuclear power, benefits of introducing firm access on the transmission.

  • East Coast Gas Market Model

This is an internally developed model by Marsden Jacob that is used to projects the development of gas reserves by basin and owner, gas pipeline flows and constraints, the availability of gas to the export and domestic markets, and the locational price of wholesale gas.

It has been developed based on the significant experience and expertise of the Marsden Jacob gas sector team. The uses of this model include accessing the impact of policy on domestic gas supply availability, new gas pipeline requirements, large customer gas supply options and risks, gas prices.

  • Retail Pricing Model – ReElCost

This model builds up retail energy prices based on the components to such prices – retail market, distribution, transmission, energy, risk, and statuary obligations. This model has been used in a number of assignments MarsdenJacob has carried out.

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Environment and climate change models

  • MJA Risk Assessment Model

This is an Excel-based model designed to undertake qualitative/ semi-quantitative risk assessments.  The model was primarily developed to undertake climate change risk assessments  consistent with the Australian Greenhouse Office / Department of Environment publication, Climate Change Impacts and Risk Management: A Guide for Business and Government (co-authored by Marsden Jacob and Broadleaf).  For that version, datasets of climate-related risks for different sectors (e.g. local government, water energy) have been developed.  However, it can be and has been adapted to undertake any risk assessment consistent with the AS/NZS IS 31000:2009 Standard for Risk Management.

 

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