The Western Australia Gas Statement of Opportunities (WA GSOO) include forecasts of gas demand and supply, an overview of gas infrastructure in the state, and emerging issues affecting the gas industry. It is designed to assist gas market participants and other energy industry stakeholders to identify any potential shortfalls, constraints, and opportunities in the WA natural gas sector.

The WA GSOO forecasts in 2017 and 2018 are based on gas demand modelling and market evaluation undertaken by Marsden Jacob Associates. Our report can be accessed on the AEMO website (link).  Marsden Jacob Associates forecast gas consumption of various gas use segments, e.g. residential, small business, mining and mineral processing, Gas Power Generation (GPG) etc.

In our advice to AEMO, GPG demand in the South West Interconnected System (SWIS) was calculated using our PROPHET simulation model of the Wholesale Energy Market (WEM). The PROPHET simulation model is an electricity market model that can determine market quantities and prices for each trading interval over multiple years (typically 10 to 20 years). The model calculates the generation merit order (on an economic basis) of plant in the WEM on a half-hourly basis, accounting for minimum generation constraints, fuel constraints and can also incorporate transmission constraints. Requirements to meet the Large-scale Renewable Energy Target (LRET) and emission reduction targets were also incorporated into the model, and the impact of new (committed and likely) renewable energy projects on GPG gas consumption.  The model was used to determine the annual/monthly dispatch of each gas plant in the WEM, and hence gas used, as well as the gas generation profile on peak demand days in the WEM.

You can access the WA Gas Demand Report here and/or contact Grant Draper in our Perth office for further information on 08 9324 1785.

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